New York — As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, Donald Trump’s social media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), has seen an astonishing stock market rebound. The surge in TMTG’s stock, which owns Truth Social, is primarily driven by heightened investor anticipation of a potential Trump victory in the upcoming election. This unexpected comeback has turned heads on Wall Street, especially given the stock’s previous downward spiral.
Just weeks ago, the company was facing dire prospects. On September 23, 2024, its stock hit a record low of $12.15, marking an 82% drop from its peak earlier in the year. Investors were losing faith, and the market had largely written off TMTG, especially as it failed to introduce any new products or strategic shifts.
However, in a dramatic reversal, TMTG’s stock price has surged nearly 150% in the three weeks following this low point. This past week alone, the stock jumped 50%, with an additional 18% gain by Monday. The timing of the surge is no coincidence, as political speculation surrounding Trump’s chances of retaking the White House have boosted investor confidence.
Unlike many companies experiencing a stock rally, TMTG’s recovery hasn’t been linked to business fundamentals. No new revenue streams, product announcements, or endorsements from prominent analysts have come to light. Instead, the surge is tied directly to Trump’s political fortunes.
“This is a clear bet on the election outcome,” said Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management. “The stock will likely continue to rise as long as investors believe Trump has a chance of winning. But if he loses, the market will likely revalue the company sharply downward.”
TMTG’s performance on the stock market has often been linked to Trump’s broader public profile. As the company’s largest shareholder, Trump owns over 114.75 million shares, making him the central figure in the company’s identity. Truth Social, the company’s flagship platform, heavily relies on Trump’s engagement and presence as its most prominent user.
The recent surge in the company’s stock has seen Trump’s personal stake skyrocket by an estimated $1.7 billion since September 23, bringing his total equity in TMTG to approximately $3.4 billion. This resurgence underscores the close relationship between TMTG’s market valuation and Trump’s political standing.
Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida and veteran market analyst, noted that TMTG’s stock performance is typical of meme stocks, which are known for wild price swings based on public interest rather than business fundamentals. “The stock thrives on attention, and right now, Trump Media is benefiting from the perception that Trump has a real shot at winning,” Ritter said. “Betting markets are increasingly in his favor, which is fueling the rally.”
Indeed, political betting platforms like PredictIt have shown a narrowing gap between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, leading investors to believe that Trump’s odds are improving. This shift in sentiment has been a key driver of the stock’s recent gains.
Michael Block, co-founder of AgentSmyth, pointed out that traders are making concentrated bets on a Trump win, with options activity heavily focused on mid-November, just after Election Day. “There’s a clear focus on Election Day outcomes,” Block said. “The recent stock movement reflects a broader expectation that Trump’s poll numbers will continue to rise.”
Despite the recent spike, TMTG’s stock is still far below its all-time high of $66 from March 2024, and Trump’s holdings are down by $2 billion from their peak earlier this year. The stock remains volatile, as it has yet to achieve sustained growth independent of political factors.
The market’s confidence has also been bolstered by Trump’s decision to hold onto his shares. Many had feared that Trump would sell off his stake once the insider lock-up period expired, which could have led to a sharp decline in stock price. However, Trump has publicly stated he has no intention of selling, a move that has provided stability and further fueled investor optimism.
“If there was any sign that Trump was going to offload his shares, the stock would have taken a significant hit,” said Tuttle. “The fact that he hasn’t sold and that he says he won’t sell has kept the momentum going.”
However, Ritter remains cautious. He believes that the market is overvaluing TMTG, given its lack of a clear business model. “The stock is trading at levels that can’t be justified by its fundamentals,” he said. “It’s overvalued by roughly 1,000%, and if Trump doesn’t win the election, there’s potential for a massive correction.”
For now, TMTG’s fate is closely tied to the election. As Election Day draws near, the stock will likely continue to fluctuate based on political sentiment, making it one of the most watched—and volatile—stocks on the market.
